Where is our FBMKLCI heading ?

Well, this is a very big question for all Malaysian trader. Today I like to shares some of my views again on our FBMKLCI, our Bursa Malaysia Stock Market. Conclusion at the end of this writings. 

Let me use my own method to check on Top 30 Index counter performance first :

Ambank      NEGATIVE Financial year 2016 1st quarter poor than 2015

ASTRO      POSITIVE         Financial year 2016 1st quarter better than 2015

AXIATA      POSITIVE       Financial year 2015 2nd quarter better than 2014

BAT              NEGATIVE Financial year 2015 2nd quarter poor than 2014

CIMB      NEGATIVE Financial year 2015 2nd quarter poor than 2014 

DIGI      NEGATIVE Financial year 2015 2nd quarter poor than 2014

GENM      NEGATIVE Financial year 2015 2nd quarter poor than 2014

GENTING    NEGATIVE Financial year 2015 2nd quarter poor than 2014

HLBANK     POSITIVE         Financial year 2015 4th quarter better than 2014

HLFG      NEGATIVE Financial year 2015 4th quarter poor than 2014

IHH              POSITIVE         Financial year 2015 2nd quarter poor than 2014

IOICORP     NEGATIVE Financial year 2015 4th quarter poor than 2014

KLCC      POSITIVE         Financial year 2015 2nd quarter poor than 2014

KLK      NEGATIVE Financial year 2015 3 quarter poor than 2014

MAXIS      NEGATIVE Financial year 2015 2nd quarter poor than 2014

MAYBANK POSITIVE Financial year 2015 2nd quarter better than 2014

MISC         POSITIVE Financial year 2015 2 quarter better than 2014

PBBANK POSITIVE Financial year 2015 2 quarter better than 2014

PCHEM      NEGATIVE Financial year 2015 2 quarter poor than 2014

PETDAG       POSITIVE     Financial year 2015 2 quarter better than 2014

PETGAS       POSITIVE         Financial year 2015 2 quarter better than 2014

PPB              POSITIVE         Financial year 2015 2 quarter better than 2014

RHBCAP     AVERAGE         Financial year 2015 2 quarter average with 2014

SIME      NEGATIVE Financial year 2015 4 quarter is poor than 2014

SKPETRO   NEGATIVE         Financial year 2016 1st quarter poor than 2015

TENAGA      NEGATIVE Financial year 2015 3rd quarter poor than 2014

TM              NEGATIVE Financial year 2015 2 quarter poor than 2014

UMW      NEGATIVE Financial year 2015 2 quarter poor than 2014

WPRTS        AVERAGE         Financial year 2015 2 quarter poor than 2014

YTL          NEGATIVE Financial year 2015 4 quarter poor than 2014

(when i do this, I just glance very quick, mistake is possible)

17 NEGATIVE result, 11 POSITIVE result, 2 AVERAGE result. 

This show that our TOP 30 giant index link counter are mostly not doing great. It's tell why our market start to fall right after all May quarter result released. Will this company recover in coming month? I felt very unlikely !! 

Let us look at FBMKLCI daily chart. hanging around 1589.16. There is one very big volume down candle happen, a big gap up and close red on 1/9/2015. For me, I think this is a deadly candle It's very hard to be able to climb above this candle, which is 1660.22. 

What weekly chart say? I only can say, I saw two very big black down candle. It's telling me there have been 2 week, that index fall so badly. If there is another week big black down candle, I am pretty sure, our FBMKLCI is hopeless already, and very very high chance to break 1500. Why all this happen ? Just because of poor result? No, it's too many bad egg spoil the soup.

Lets look at our iShares MSCI Malaysia ETF that listed in NYSE Arca.

The iShares MSCI Malaysia ETF seeks to track the investment results of an index composed of Malaysian equities.

1. Exposure to large and mid-sized companies in Malaysia
2. Targeted access to 85% of the Malaysian stock market

3. Use to express a single country view 

And you see what happen to its price. 52 week high at 16.15. Now only traded soon half at 9.64, last Friday drop another 3.5%. It's express a very bad view for Malaysia stock market. . 

Let us look at our USD/MYR, it's MELETUP and break new HIGH ! Wow ! 

What will this impact to our stock market? Very obviously, foreign fund will continue running away. Our cost of living will also MELETUP ! Food, imported product, many products price will increase at least 10-20% ! We just have GST 6% few month back, that time almost all product price increase 10-20%, now second round ! It's will impact big for lower income people. And you have to think seriously, did your salary increase even 5% this few month?

I not yet even mentioned about Interest rate, China economy slow down, Political problem, Country Debts, which all seems to be negatives to us. 

Until here, I have my conclusion that, I think our FBMKLCI, and our stock market are seriously doing very badly because:

1. Most of the index counter have poor result. 

2. Technically index are very bearish. 

3. RM depreciate too fast that cause many problem.

4. Many others big issues will impact Malaysia Economy.

5. Foreign fund have no reason to stay.

6. Government fail to improve efficiency.

What we can do with our stock market ? Still any way to trade ? It's covered in my Facebook and telegram group chat. Welcome to add me. 

My short term target on FBMKLCI at 1500, medium 1400, bottom if worst happen 1100-1300.