Friday, September 25, 2015

The Stock Markets Of The 10 Largest Global Economies Are All Crashing


Globe Interconnectedness

You would think that the simultaneous crashing of all of the largest stock markets around the world would be very big news.  But so far the mainstream media in the United States is treating it like it isn’t really a big deal.  Over the last sixty days, we have witnessed the most significant global stock market decline since the fall of 2008, and yet most people still seem to think that this is just a temporary “bump in the road” and that the bull market will soon resume.  Hopefully they are right.  When the Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeted 777 points on September 29th, 2008 everyone freaked out and rightly so.  But a stock market crash doesn’t have to be limited to a single day.  Since the peak of the market earlier this year, the Dow is down almost three times as much as that 777 point crash back in 2008.  Over the last sixty days, we have seen the 8th largest single day stock market crash in U.S. history on a point basis and the 10th largest single day stock market crash in U.S. history on a point basis.  You would think that this would be enough to wake people up, but most Americans still don’t seem very alarmed.  And of course what has happened to U.S. stocks so far is quite mild compared to what has been going on in the rest of the world.
Right now, stock market wealth is being wiped out all over the planet, and none of the largest global economies have been exempt from this.  The following is a summary of what we have seen in recent days…
#1 The United States – The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down more than 2000 points since the peak of the market.  Last month we saw stocks decline by more than 500 points on consecutive trading days for the first time ever, and there has not been this much turmoil in U.S. markets since the fall of 2008.
#2 China – The Shanghai Composite Index has plummeted nearly 40 percent since hitting a peak earlier this year.  The Chinese economy is steadily slowing down, and we just learned that China’s manufacturing index has hit a 78 month low.
#3 Japan – The Nikkei has experienced extremely violent moves recently, and it is now down more than 3000 points from the peak that was hit earlier in 2015.  The Japanese economy and the Japanese financial system are both basket cases at this point, and it isn’t going to take much to push Japan into a full-blown financial collapse.
#4 Germany – Almost one-fourth of the value of German stocks has already been wiped out, and this crash threatens to get much worse.  The Volkswagen emissions scandal is making headlines all over the globe, and don’t forget to watch for massive trouble at Germany’s biggest bank.
#5 The United Kingdom – British stocks are down about 16 percent from the peak of the market, and the UK economy is definitely on shaky ground.
#6 France – French stocks have declined nearly 18 percent, and it has become exceedingly apparent that France is on the exact same path that Greece has already gone down.
#7 Brazil – Brazil is the epicenter of the South American financial crisis of 2015.  Stocks in Brazil have plunged more than 12,000 points since the peak, and the nation has already officially entered a new recession.
#8 Italy – Watch Italy.  Italian stocks are already down 15 percent, and look for the Italian economy to make very big headlines in the months ahead.
#9 India – Stocks in India have now dropped close to 4000 points, and analysts are deeply concerned about this major exporting nation as global trade continues to contract.
#10 Russia – Even though the price of oil has crashed, Russia is actually doing better than almost everyone else on this list.  Russian stocks have fallen by about 10 percent so far, and if the price of oil stays this low the Russian financial system will continue to suffer.
What we are witnessing now is the continuation of a cycle of financial downturns that has happened every seven years.  The following is a summary of how this cycle has played out over the past 50 years
  • It started in 1966 with a 20 percent stock market crash.
  • Seven years later, the market lost another 45 percent (1973-74).
  • Seven years later was the beginning of the “hard recession” (1980).
  • Seven years later was the Black Monday crash of 1987.
  • Seven years later was the bond market crash of 1994.
  • Seven years later was 9/11 and the 2001 tech bubble collapse.
  • Seven years later was the 2008 global financial collapse.
  • 2015: What’s next?
A lot of people were expecting something “big” to happen on September 14th and were disappointed when nothing happened.
But the truth is that it has never been about looking at any one particular day.  Over the past sixty days we have seen absolutely extraordinary things happen all over the planet, and yet some people are not even paying attention because they did not meet their preconceived notions of how events should play out.
And this is just the beginning.  We haven’t even gotten to the great derivatives crisis that is coming yet.  All of these things are going to take time to fully unfold.
A lot of people that write about “economic collapse” talk about it like it will be some type of “event” that will happen on a day or a week and then we will recover.
Well, that is not what it is going to be like.
You need to be ready to endure a very, very long crisis.  The suffering that is coming to this nation is beyond what most of us could even imagine.
Even now we are seeing early signs of it.  For instance, the mayor of Los Angeles says that the growth of homelessness in his city has gotten so bad that it is now “an emergency”

On Tuesday, Los Angeles officials announced the city’s homelessness problem has become an emergency, and proposed allotting $100 million to help shelter the city’s massive and growing indigent population.


LA Mayor Eric Garcetti also issued a directive on Monday evening for the city to free up $13 million to help house the estimated 26,000 people who are living on the city’s streets.


According to the Los Angeles Homeless Services Authority, the number of encampments and people living in vehicles has increased by 85% over the last two years alone.


And in recent years we have seen poverty absolutely explode all over the nation. The “bread lines” of the Great Depression have been replaced with EBT cards, and there is a possibility that a government shutdown in October could “suspend or delay food stamp payments”…


A government shutdown Oct. 1 could immediately suspend or delay food stamp payments to some of the 46 million Americans who receive the food aid.
The Agriculture Department said Tuesday that it will stop providing benefits at the beginning of October if Congress does not pass legislation to keep government agencies open.


“If Congress does not act to avert a lapse in appropriations, then USDA will not have the funding necessary for SNAP benefits in October and will be forced to stop providing benefits within the first several days of October,” said Catherine Cochran, a spokeswoman for USDA. “Once that occurs, families won’t be able to use these benefits at grocery stores to buy the food their families need.”

In the U.S. alone, there are tens of millions of people that could not survive without the help of the federal government, and more people are falling out of the middle class every single day.
Our economy is already falling apart all around us, and now another great financial crisis has begun.
When will the “nothing is happening” crowd finally wake up?
Hopefully it will be before they are sitting out on the street begging for spare change to feed their family.

Wednesday, September 23, 2015

Peter Schiff: I'm right about the Fed, I'll be right about stocks





Peter Schiff has a strong message for investors: It's time to wake up.

The long Fed foe took a victory lap on CNBC's "Futures Now" Tuesday, days after Fed chair Janet Yellen announced she would leave interest rates unchanged for the time being.

"The whole world has been fooled by this Fed con," said the Euro Pacific Capital CEO. "Most people believe the Fed. They believe the Fed is going to raise rates," he added. "I'm not the only one who has it right, but most people have it wrong."

Schiff has long posited that the Fed will never raise interest rates, contrary to general consensus. In fact, Schiff believes the likelihood of another round of easing is greater than a rate hike. "I don't think she ever intended to hike rates," he said. "They are in a monetary roach hotel, and they will never be able to raise rates back up."

Recent turmoil in global equities is just the latest reason for the "data dependent" Fed to hold off on its first hike in nearly a decade. But for Schiff, this isn't anything new, as he has been calling the Fed's bluff long before the latest bout in volatility.

"This economy is rapidly decelerating and the Fed just doesn't want to acknowledge that its monetary medicine didn't work and the patient is now sicker than ever," said Schiff. "So the Fed just wants to maintain the pretense that they are going to raise rates but in the end they don't actually want to do it," he added. "[Yellen] is going to pretend they can raise rates and pretend it's right around the corner but will keep coming up with one excuse after another to why they aren't doing it."

According to Schiff, if the Fed continues to kick the can down the road eventually "foreign exchange markets are going to get wise to the Fed's con," and "there's going to be a currency crisis." For him, the air is already being let out of the dollar, and once the rally reverses, the bond market will collapse along with it. "There's a bubble in the dollar," and "people get trapped in this bubble and they can't see it."

To his naysayers, Schiff concluded, "It's not the first time I've been against consensus and it won't be the last. And I'm usually right."

Monday, September 14, 2015

The RM20 Bil Booster





So finally it did happened ...a piece of good news ....the national economic team from ValueCap Fund came out with a RM20 bil booster especially to the stock market. 

Don't expect too much as the economical fundamentals of the country and the worlds' problems did not end with this 20 bil injection.

It is too small to have a long-term effect.





And just guessing ok ...if today the national team guys roughly spent RM1 bil to prop up the market, based on the total RM1.3 bil bought in Bursa Daily Participation table above, that means that the bullets will finish in 20 days if they continue to spend this amount every trading days ahead.


Saturday, September 5, 2015

Where is our FBMKLCI heading ?


Well, this is a very big question for all Malaysian trader. Today I like to shares some of my views again on our FBMKLCI, our Bursa Malaysia Stock Market. Conclusion at the end of this writings. 


Let me use my own method to check on Top 30 Index counter performance first :

Ambank      NEGATIVE Financial year 2016 1st quarter poor than 2015
ASTRO      POSITIVE         Financial year 2016 1st quarter better than 2015
AXIATA      POSITIVE       Financial year 2015 2nd quarter better than 2014
BAT              NEGATIVE Financial year 2015 2nd quarter poor than 2014
CIMB      NEGATIVE Financial year 2015 2nd quarter poor than 2014 
DIGI      NEGATIVE Financial year 2015 2nd quarter poor than 2014
GENM      NEGATIVE Financial year 2015 2nd quarter poor than 2014
GENTING    NEGATIVE Financial year 2015 2nd quarter poor than 2014
HLBANK     POSITIVE         Financial year 2015 4th quarter better than 2014
HLFG      NEGATIVE Financial year 2015 4th quarter poor than 2014
IHH              POSITIVE         Financial year 2015 2nd quarter poor than 2014
IOICORP     NEGATIVE Financial year 2015 4th quarter poor than 2014
KLCC      POSITIVE         Financial year 2015 2nd quarter poor than 2014
KLK      NEGATIVE Financial year 2015 3 quarter poor than 2014
MAXIS      NEGATIVE Financial year 2015 2nd quarter poor than 2014
MAYBANK POSITIVE Financial year 2015 2nd quarter better than 2014
MISC         POSITIVE Financial year 2015 2 quarter better than 2014
PBBANK POSITIVE Financial year 2015 2 quarter better than 2014
PCHEM      NEGATIVE Financial year 2015 2 quarter poor than 2014
PETDAG       POSITIVE     Financial year 2015 2 quarter better than 2014
PETGAS       POSITIVE         Financial year 2015 2 quarter better than 2014
PPB              POSITIVE         Financial year 2015 2 quarter better than 2014
RHBCAP     AVERAGE         Financial year 2015 2 quarter average with 2014
SIME      NEGATIVE Financial year 2015 4 quarter is poor than 2014
SKPETRO   NEGATIVE         Financial year 2016 1st quarter poor than 2015
TENAGA      NEGATIVE Financial year 2015 3rd quarter poor than 2014
TM              NEGATIVE Financial year 2015 2 quarter poor than 2014
UMW      NEGATIVE Financial year 2015 2 quarter poor than 2014
WPRTS        AVERAGE         Financial year 2015 2 quarter poor than 2014
YTL          NEGATIVE Financial year 2015 4 quarter poor than 2014

(when i do this, I just glance very quick, mistake is possible)

17 NEGATIVE result, 11 POSITIVE result, 2 AVERAGE result. 

This show that our TOP 30 giant index link counter are mostly not doing great. It's tell why our market start to fall right after all May quarter result released. Will this company recover in coming month? I felt very unlikely !! 

Let us look at FBMKLCI daily chart. hanging around 1589.16. There is one very big volume down candle happen, a big gap up and close red on 1/9/2015. For me, I think this is a deadly candle It's very hard to be able to climb above this candle, which is 1660.22. 


What weekly chart say? I only can say, I saw two very big black down candle. It's telling me there have been 2 week, that index fall so badly. If there is another week big black down candle, I am pretty sure, our FBMKLCI is hopeless already, and very very high chance to break 1500. Why all this happen ? Just because of poor result? No, it's too many bad egg spoil the soup.


Lets look at our iShares MSCI Malaysia ETF that listed in NYSE Arca.

The iShares MSCI Malaysia ETF seeks to track the investment results of an index composed of Malaysian equities.
1. Exposure to large and mid-sized companies in Malaysia
2. Targeted access to 85% of the Malaysian stock market


Let us look at our USD/MYR, it's MELETUP and break new HIGH ! Wow ! 


What will this impact to our stock market? Very obviously, foreign fund will continue running away. Our cost of living will also MELETUP ! Food, imported product, many products price will increase at least 10-20% ! We just have GST 6% few month back, that time almost all product price increase 10-20%, now second round ! It's will impact big for lower income people. And you have to think seriously, did your salary increase even 5% this few month?



I not yet even mentioned about Interest rate, China economy slow down, Political problem, Country Debts, which all seems to be negatives to us. 

Until here, I have my conclusion that, I think our FBMKLCI, and our stock market are seriously doing very badly because:

1. Most of the index counter have poor result. 
2. Technically index are very bearish. 
3. RM depreciate too fast that cause many problem.
4. Many others big issues will impact Malaysia Economy.
5. Foreign fund have no reason to stay.
6. Government fail to improve efficiency.

What we can do with our stock market ? Still any way to trade ? It's covered in my Facebook and telegram group chat. Welcome to add me. 

My short term target on FBMKLCI at 1500, medium 1400, bottom if worst happen 1100-1300.