Unsuccessful vs Successful Trader

Don't Let CHEAP Stock Price Entice you to Buy!

An IMPORTANT equally valid words of wisdom for investors could be, "Don't judge a stock SIMPLY by looking at its share price or in relation to its peers in the industry." Despite much readily available information for investors, many people (including me!😀) still incorrectly assume that a stock with a small dollar price is cheap and a BARGAIN, while another with a heftier price is expensive and OVERVALUED. This misconceived notion can lead investors into some bad decisions for their money and burn a big hole into their pockets.

Unfortunately, the cheapest stocks - "penny stocks" - also tend to be the riskiest. Not to mention the penny stocks are a COMMON GAME PLAY of stock pump and dump and stock syndicates. Looking at a stock's share price is only useful when taking many other factors into account.

Some Relevant Factors to Consider before Buying😎

• Relative Strength in Industry

• Company's debts in balance sheet

• Share price to Earnings (PE Ratio)

• Number of shares issued in market

• Management Competence

• Any Bad News on Company and Industry

Conclusion

Some investors may focus on share price when looking at a stock, because it is the most visible and talk about number in the financial press. Investors should not get fixated on share price alone, because companies can manipulate share prices dramatically through various means without changing fundamentals. Please dig a little deeper when thinking about your next investment, and remember that a stock with a high price can go much higher under the right circumstances, just as a stock with a low price can sink even further if it isn't really a good value.

38 Steps to become a Successful Trader

1 We accumulate information - buying books, going to seminars and researching.

2 We begin to trade with our 'new' knowledge.

3 We consistently 'donate' and then realize we may need more knowledge or information.

4 We accumulate more information.

5 We switch the commodities we are currently following.

6 We go back into the market and trade with our 'updated' knowledge.

7 We get 'beat up' again and begin to lose some of our confidence. Fear starts setting in.

8 We start to listen to 'outside news' and to other traders.

9 We go back into the market and continue to 'donate'.

10 We switch commodities again.

11 We search for more information.

12 We go back into the market and start to see a little progress.

13 We get 'over-confident' and the market humbles us.

14 We start to understand that trading successfully is going to take more time and more knowledge than we anticipated.

MOST PEOPLE WILL GIVE UP AT THIS POINT, AS THEY REALIZE WORK IS INVOLVED.

15 We get serious and start concentrating on learning a 'real' methodology.

16 We trade our methodology with some success, but realize that something is missing.

17 We begin to understand the need for having rules to apply our methodology.

18 We take a sabbatical from trading to develop and research our trading rules.

19 We start trading again, this time with rules and find some success, but over all we still hesitate when we execute.

20 We add, subtract and modify rules as we see a need to be more proficient with our rules.

21 We feel we are very close to crossing that threshold of successful trading.

22 We start to take responsibility for our trading results as we understand that our success is in us, not the methodology.

23 We continue to trade and become more proficient with our methodology and our rules.

24 As we trade we still have a tendency to violate our rules and our results are still erratic.

25 We know we are close.

26 We go back and research our rules.

27 We build the confidence in our rules and go back into the market and trade.

28 Our trading results are getting better, but we are still hesitating in executing our rules.

29 We now see the importance of following our rules as we see the results of our trades when we don't follow the rules.

30 We begin to see that our lack of success is within us (a lack of discipline in following the rules because of some kind of fear) and we begin to work on knowing ourselves better.

31 We continue to trade and the market teaches us more and more about ourselves.

32 We master our methodology and our trading rules.

33 We begin to consistently make money.

34 We get a little over-confident and the market humbles us.

35 We continue to learn our lessons.

36 We stop thinking and allow our rules to trade for us (trading becomes boring, but successful) and our trading account continues to grow as we increase our contract size.

37 We are making more money than we ever dreamed possible.

38 We go on with our lives and accomplish many of the goals we had always dreamed of.

Source: http://financefloor.blogspot.my/2012/01/38-steps-to-becoming-trader.html?m=1

Is Forex Trading a Scam?

Forex is not a scam, but there are plenty of scams associated with forex. Regulators have significantly caught up to the scammers over the years, making them increasingly rare.

Scams are a big problem faced by everyone in the forex industry. As with any new industry, there are plenty of people out there looking to take advantage of newcomers.

Forex itself is a legitimate endeavor. Forex trading is a real business that can be profitable, but it must be treated as such.

It is not a get rich overnight business, no matter what you may read elsewhere. However, it is possible to have a profitable legitimate forex business. Like any other real business, though, there is no free lunch.

Defining a Scam

A scam or fraud is an intentional deception in order to take unsuspecting money from a person. In this sense, scams are rare and are becoming increasingly so. There is a distinct difference between a poorly run brokerage and a fraudulent one. Even a poorly ran brokerage can run for a long time before something takes them out of the game.

Why Do People Believe It to Be a Scam?

Forex trading became available to retail traders in 1999. The first handful of years was wrought with overnight brokers that seem to shut up shop without notice. The common denominator was that these brokers were based and non-regulated countries. While some did take place the United States, the majority seem to happen overseas where all it took to set up a brokerage was a few thousand dollars in fees.

Since 2007, the occurrence of shops vanishing with clients funds has become very rare. Over the last few years, Forex brokers mainly have been acquired by others, or the shops of the shutdown have been futures brokers whose clients were also able to trade Forex futures but not spot Forex such as MF Global.

Due to the Swiss National Bank removal of the Swiss peg to the Euro, two brokerages went under. One broker in New Zealand and Alpari's UK division due to losses exceeding excess capital.

How to Avoid Being Scammed?

The first advice we could give you is to check where the brokerage is headquartered. Regulations have increased greatly in the last 5 to 10 years, and it has, rightfully so, become increasingly expensive to do business in highly regulated countries like the United States or the United Kingdom.

Outside of location, you can do diligence based on how willing the broker is to talk about execution and their books. In other words, you can ask them how long they've been in business and how many countries they are regulated in. The more the better.

The simple act of finding out who you should call if you feel that you've been scammed (before investing with a brokerage) can save you a lot of potential heartache down the road. If you can't find someone to call because the brokerage is located in a non-regulated jurisdiction, it's best to find alternatives who are regulated.

What to Do If You Feel You're Being Scammed?

Depending on your location, you should speak to your governing authority.

Most of the regulations that have passed have come from requests of clients at brokerages that have failed or if it clients feel they have been cheated. Therefore, you can have a role in cleaning up the FX market continually.

Source: The Balance

OPEC: Can it ride out the storm?

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AFP

by AFP15 Jul 20171

Istanbul (AFP) – For cartel OPEC — created in 1960 with the aim of supporting a sustainable price on the oil market — it is in some ways a perfect storm.

Stocks have surged thanks to the rapid emergence of oil from US shale deposits. And due to the abundant supply, the price of oil now stands at currently less than $50 per barrel, around a third of the level of 10 years ago, when it topped a high of $147.

This has been terrible news for the leading members of the group — including Iran, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela — who have seen holes blown in their hydrocarbon-dependent budgets.

Meanwhile, on a longer term horizon, the focus has switched from when “peak oil” will be reached — the moment oil extraction starts to decline due to dwindling resources — to when demand itself could fall.

So the mood as top energy bosses and ministers met at the World Petroleum Congress in Istanbul this week ranged from pensive to sombre.

“It’s hard to come to terms with the fact that this is a different oil industry,” said Daniel Yergin, the vice chairman of IHS Markit, who wrote the acclaimed book “The Prize” on the history of the global oil industry.

“The US will later this year or early next year reach the highest production in its history,” he told the congress.

– ‘Prices are stuck’ –

OPEC has no control over the revolution caused by the production of shale oil in the United States, which is not a member of the cartel.

In a bid to push prices up, OPEC and key non-cartel members — including Russia, but not the United States — agreed coordinated output cuts in December to push up prices.

The cuts were envisaged for six months and extended for another three. But so far, they have had hardly any effect — with oil prices still hovering at 45 dollars a barrel.

The oil industry was confronted by market forces “which are strong, stubborn and as a result we are here today with prices that are stuck… where they were six months ago,” said International Energy Agency (IEA) director Fatih Birol.

“It will be a very, very difficult six months for the oil industry, a case of riding out the storm,” he said.

OPEC Secretary General Mohammed Barkindo admitted there had been “high expectations” that markets would respond to the deal in 2017, but so far these had not been realised.

The failure of the deal to make a difference is particularly irksome for OPEC as compliance — the implementation of the pledges — has been over 100 percent.

Undeterred, OPEC and the non-cartel members party to the deal will have a committee meeting in Saint Petersburg on July 24 to review its effects.

Meanwhile, an effort to tighten coordination, Barkindo revealed that OPEC had held “very useful preliminary meetings” with US shale producers.

OPEC’s own influence has also slipped in recent years and it now counts for just a third of global oil supplies compared with 40 percent a decade ago.

As well as the US shale revolution, the greater importance of additional non-OPEC market players — including Brazil and Mexico — is also being felt, according to Sarah Emerson, head of the US-based Energy Security Analysis.

– ‘Long and complex’ –

Meanwhile, rapid global changes could also hit demand for oil in the long term, especially with the expected growth in electric cars.

“At what point demand stops growing is very much linked to the automobile,” said Yergin.

“We are seeing now a convergence of a whole lot of technology which will change the nature of what vehicles are,” he said, pointing also to the growth in ride-hailing apps.

But participants in the congress emphasised that the growth in electric cars was starting from a very low base and petrol would likely still be needed in trucks and planes for years to come.

Renewable energy is also seeing unprecedented growth — encouraged by some traditional oil majors like BP — while companies are under pressure to reduce emissions in line with the Paris Agreement on climate change.

But the chief of the Saudi Arabian energy giant Saudi Aramco, Amin Nasser, said he was optimistic that fossil fuels would remain part of the world’s energy mix for decades to come.

“The renewables still have major challenges and they do not compete with oil,” he said. “The energy transition underway will be a long, complex process,” he added.

Source: http://www.breitbart.com/news/opec-can-it-ride-out-the-storm/

What Money Can Buy

Stock Market Advice

In bull market, there are many retailers outside there come out and shout this and that but how many of them actually making money from stock market. To be honest, stock market is a cruel place that treat everyone fair. You will see stock price up nonstop for those weak FA counters and price getting lower and lower for those strong FA counters. You will see engineers, doctors, CEO of a company or whatever loss big in stock market. Don't ever apply your common sense on stock market. What you studied in university or working place doesn't apply in stock market. Stock market is a good place to train your emotional, fast thinking & how to manage your own risk. Learn how to protect your own capital before thinking to earn money from stock market. They will loss back what they earn in bull market when the market turns bad. Forever remember that, there is no such stock will up nonstop till sky high and never drop back. It is a cycle that what goes up will come down. Always remember that don't be greedy in stock market. There no such thing that forever winning in stock market. Be grateful if you are winner in stock market. Be humble always. No matter how long you in stock market you will not know what happen next day. Once again, we are glad that everyone making money in stock market. However, our advice is try not to loss back to stock market included your capital. Happy weekend and be a winner & survivor in bull or bear market.

Source: Stock Alliance Telegram Group

The story of the Nine of the Wealthiest people in the world

In 1923, nine of the wealthiest people in the world met at Chicago's Edge Water Beach Hotel.

Their combined wealth, it is estimated, exceeded the wealth of the Government of the United States at that time. These men certainly knew how to make a living and accumulate wealth. Attending the meeting were the following men:

1. The president of the largest steel company,

2. The president of the largest utility company,

3. The president of the largest gas company,

4. The president of the New York Stock Exchange,

5. The president of the Bank of International Settlements,

6. The greatest wheat speculator,

7. The greatest bear on Wall Street,

8. The head of the World's greatest Economy
&

9. A member of President Harding's cabinet.

That's a pretty impressive line-up of people by anyone's yardstick.

Yet, 25 years later, where were those nine industrial giants?

Let’s examine what happened to them 25 years later.
1. The President of the then largest steel company (Bethlehem Steel Corp), Charles M Schwab, lived on borrowed capital for five years before he died bankrupt.

2. The President of the then largest gas company, Howard Hubson, went insane.

3. One of the greatest commodity traders (Wheat Speculator), Arthur Cutten, died insolvent.

4. The then President of the New York Stock Exchange, Richard Whitney, was sent to jail.

5. The member of the US President’s Cabinet (the member of President Harding's cabinet), Albert Fall, was pardoned from jail just to be able to go home and die in peace.

6. The greatest “bear” on Wall Street, Jesse Livermore committed suicide.

7. The President of the then world’s greatest monopoly, Ivar Krueger, committed suicide.

8. The President of the Bank of International Settlement, Leon Fraser, committed Suicide.

9. The president of the largest utility company, Samuel Insull, died penniless.

What they forgot was how to "make" life while they got busy making money!

Money in itself is not evil; it provides food for the hungry, medicine for the sick, clothes for the needy. Money is only a medium of exchange.

We need two kinds of education:

a) One that teaches us how to make a living,

and

b) One that teaches us how to live.

There are many of us who are so engrossed in our professional life that we neglect our family, health and social responsibilities.

If asked why we do this, we would reply that "We are doing it for our family".

Yet, our kids are sleeping when we leave home. They are sleeping when we come back home!! Twenty years later, we’ll turn back, and they’ll all be gone, to pursue their own dreams and their own lives.

Without water, a ship cannot move. The ship needs water, but if the water gets into the ship, the ship will face existential problems. What was once a means of living for the ship will now become a means of destruction.

Similarly we live in a time where earning is a necessity but let not the earning enter our hearts, for what was once a means of living will surely become a means of destruction for us as well.

So take a moment and ask yourself, "Has the water entered my ship?"
I hope not!

Hope the above story will drive all of us in a better direction in life..

Source: Copied from Whatsapp

Everything You Need To Know About the EPF

If you are new to the workforce, there’s a chance that you’re still in the dark about what Employee Provident Fund (EPF) account is and what it means for your financials. Let’s get to it and learn more about the main retirement account in Malaysia!

What Is the EPF?

You probably already know this but – just in case you didn’t, EPF is essentially a retirement savings account for employees of the private and non-pensionable public sector. EPF members are made up of these employees and those who voluntarily choose to contribute as well.

The EPF agency collects contributions from employers at a rate of 13% for employees who receive wages of RM5,000 per month and below (and 12% for those earning above RM5,000 per month). Employees also have an option to contribute either 8% or 11% of their monthly wages. The contributions and dividends will be divided into two accounts; 70% goes into Account 1 and 30% into Account 2.

These contributions are mandatory for all employers and employees; it’s also an avenue for employers to provide structured benefits and to fulfil a moral obligation to their employees.

Registering as an EPF Member

Registration is automatic when the EPF receives the very first contribution in your name (based on your Identification Card details) from your employer. You can also register yourself via post or at the EPF counter with Form KWSP 3.

What you should do after you have an EPF number is to sign up for an online account with EPF (i-Akaun). With an online account, you can save yourself the trouble of making the trip to the EPF office for withdrawal requests, getting your current and past year EPF statements, as well as updating your correspondence details and nominations. All these account activities are available to perform online via i-Akaun.

Registering for the online account is simple; all you need to do is obtain the activation code from an EPF kiosk or counter and proceed to the login page on the EPF website to complete your registration, and presto, you’ll have your very own i-Akaun!

EPF Benefits You Should Know About

Apart from the account being a savings vehicle for retirement, you are also entitled to certain additional benefits. Here are four important ones, some of which you may not know about:

• Dividend Earnings – The EPF guarantees annual minimum dividend earnings of 2.5% - although the average is 5% to 6% for the past 10 years. At this rate, your savings are protected from inflation and builds rather healthily over the long-term.
• Death Benefit – The next of kin or dependent of EPF members may be given a death benefit of RM2,500 if members have not attained the age of 55 (subject to consideration and other conditions by EPF).
• Incapacitation Benefit – RM5,000 will be provided to eligible members who apply for Incapacitation Withdrawal and are unfit to work (subject to consideration and other conditions by EPF).
• Tax Exemptions – Your contributions are tax deductible up to a maximum of RM6,000 per year which is inclusive of your life insurance premium. In addition, dividend earnings from EPF investments are also free of tax.
• 
  

Can You Make Withdrawals?

You can make withdrawals, but only for specific purposes outlined by the agency. For instance, you may withdraw a portion to perform Hajj, invest in unit trusts, pay for your education, pay down your home loan, fund your medical expenses, or buy property or build a house.

At age 50 to 54, you may withdraw some or all the funds from Account 2. You may also fully withdraw your account if you plan to leave the country or when you reach the age of 55.

Making Voluntary Contributions

If you are unemployed, you may still contribute to an EPF account and enjoy the benefits (subject to terms and conditions). Those who are self-employed, a domestic servant, retired worker or “person not defined as an employee in the EPF Act 1991” may sign up for self-contributions. You can contribute as little as RM50 per month to a maximum of RM60,000 per year.

Still, are EPF contributions the best way to save for retirement? Well, we’re leaning towards the affirmative. For one, whether you are employed or not, everyone needs retirement savings and with guaranteed returns from the EPF, you’ll always have something to fall back on.

Also, since your contributions are tax deductible, you can lessen the amount of taxes you pay each year.

Source: RinggitPlus

Why are M'sians investing hard-earned money in Ponzi schemes?

When it comes to investing money, the surest investment in Malaysia is your Employees Provident Fund (EPF) account. The EPF is mandated by law to pay a minimum return of 2% per year and deposits are fully guaranteed by the government. The only way anyone will lose money is if the government goes bankrupt, and that is not going to happen as it stands.

THERE is never a sure thing when it comes to making money. Risk, which ranges from low to high depending on the venture a person gets involved in, is ever present.

When it comes to investing money, the surest investment in Malaysia is your Employees Provident Fund (EPF) account. The EPF is mandated by law to pay a minimum return of 2% per year and deposits are fully guaranteed by the government. The only way anyone will lose money is if the government goes bankrupt, and that is not going to happen as it stands.

Even unit trust companies and share investing is dependent on the stock market and the quality of the listed company a fund or people buy. Mutual funds and share investing do post losses when the markets turn sour, but blue chips have always delivered over time and having a diversified portfolio of the best companies in Malaysia is one way of seeing your money, with calculated risk, grow over time.

A stable return is also ensured if a person puts his money in fixed deposits, as banks in Malaysia are not going to fail given the current economy.

And this begs the question why are Malaysians investing so much of their hard-earned money in Ponzi schemes that up to now are seemingly free to go about their business in the country?

Bank Negara on its website has a list, which it says is of companies and websites that are neither authorised nor approved by the relevant laws and regulations administered by the central bank.

The number of companies and websites it has now warned of totals 288, according to an update on Feb 24. Furthermore, Bank Negara says people who choose to invest in such schemes or illegal financial service providers have no consumer protection under the laws administered by Bank Negara. In plain English, it means that if you were to lose your money, then it’s just too bad.

It also goes to say that people who participate in illegal financial activities could be charged under the law as abetting the operators of such illegal activities.

A perusal of the list of companies Bank Negara has published shows that a large number of companies that are not approved by Bank Negara laws are involved in gold trading, forex trading and what it calls unlicensed activities. One has to think that what unlicensed activities mean is deposit-taking activity, where people invest or deposit their money in firms in the hope of a sizeable future return.

The first thing that should jump at people in assessing a questionable scheme is the returns being promised. Promises and guarantees of supernormal returns, in many cases more than 10% a month, from companies that have a shallow history or suspect background should not be enticement to invest. It should send a warning signal that the scheme cannot be trusted.

The other good news from the fallout from dubious schemes is that the government is now looking at closing loopholes that have allowed dubious financial schemes to flourish all this time.

The Domestic Trade, Cooperatives and Consumerism Ministry, the police, Bank Negara and other relevant departments have been asked to draw up plans to deal with the scourge of such schemes.

The other thing the prevalence of such schemes has shown is that there is a need for financial education at all levels. While the need of having such education stemmed from dealing with the problem of household debt and bankruptcies, people need to be educated on realistic financial goals as well.

While greed certainly is the motivation to invest in dubious financial schemes, the public should know that those who profit do so at the expense of many who have lost money in chasing a quick buck.

Read more at http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/04/28/when-its-too-good-to-be-true/#7BR4DcbusocyGexi.99

70 days in, Donald Trump’s presidency is flailing

During the 2016 campaign, Donald Trump broke every rule of politics — and he won anyway.

He dominated the Republican primary by running against the Republican Party. He repulsed the GOP’s key leaders and emerged all the stronger for it. He delighted in conspiracy theories and schoolyard insults. He contradicted himself routinely, but managed to sell his flip-flops as evidence of pragmatism rather than proof of dishonesty. He knew nothing about policy, didn’t bother to learn more, and profited from the uncertainty about his true positions. His campaign was clearly assisted by Russian hackers, but the story was overwhelmed by the obsession with Hillary Clinton’s emails.

And then, of course, there was the election itself — Trump trailed in the polls, barely built a field operation, lost the popular vote, and then won the presidency.

Like many who covered Trump, I found it hard, after all this, to predict the likely path of his presidency. Perhaps he could defy every norm and succeed there too. But with every day that passes, Trump is looking more bound by the political system he promised to upend. The outcomes we’re seeing look like what you’d expect from an inexperienced, unfocused president who’s more interested in tweeting out cable news commentary than learning about the government he runs and the policies he wants to change. Merely 10 weeks into his term, the processes, skills, and institutions Trump flouted as a candidate are breaking him as a president. Consider his record so far:


Health care, Trump’s top priority, crashed and burned. Trump didn’t understand the American Health Care Act nor the legislative maneuvering that would be required to pass it. He endorsed the most unpopular piece of legislation in memory and then declared defeat after only 17 days. In doing so, he made everything else on his agenda harder, because he showed he doesn't have the stomach for a long congressional fight or the ability to sell complex, challenging proposals to the public.

Trump is historically unpopular. Less than three months into his presidency, Trump is less popular than Barack Obama was at any point during his two terms. To underscore Trump’s dubious achievement here, he is more unpopular with unemployment at 4.7 percent than Obama was when unemployment was 10 percent! It took President George W. Bush a disastrous war to hit Trump’s current polling nadir. This, too, makes everything else Trump wants to achieve harder — vulnerable congressional Republicans have little political incentive to back a president this unpopular on a hard vote.

Trump’s most consequential executive orders are stuck in the courts and imperiled by his words. So far, Trump’s most unusual and controversial policy change is his executive order banning travelers from a number of majority-Muslim countries. But the slapdash first iteration of Trump’s order was stopped by the courts, and the substantially scaled-back sequel suffered the same fate. The biggest problem Trump faces here, fittingly, is his own words: Having said he wanted an (unconstitutional) Muslim ban, it is difficult for him to convince the courts that the policies descending from that promise are not targeting Muslims.


Trump’s administration is historically understaffed. To fill his government, Trump needs to clear 553 political appointees through the Senate. According to the Washington Post’s tracker, he has only confirmed 21 and only nominated another 40 — a pace that puts him far, far behind his predecessors. The result is that critical positions ranging from chief economist to undersecretary of state remain unfilled, and so large swaths of the executive branch are operating without direction, oversight, or alignment with Trump’s agenda. This is why there’s something comic about Trump appointing his son-in-law to lead a task force on improving government; to build a better government, first you need to understand how to work the one you’ve got.

Trump’s White House is leaking and divided. Trump has done a better job filling positions inside his own White House, where the Senate’s confirmation process doesn’t apply. But already, his key staff have dissolved into infighting and factionalism. The story, of late, is that the conservative wing of the Trump administration — led by the often-squabbling Reince Priebus and Steve Bannon — is trying to head off a power play from the New York business establishment of the Trump administration, which is led by Jared Kushner and ex–Goldman Sachs VP Gary Cohn. The amount of leaking both sides of this battle are doing is intense, and does not bode well for the White House’s internal processes.

Trump’s administration is under investigation, and there are already casualties. It was weird, during the campaign, to watch Russia helping Trump, and being helped by Trump, and to have the media treat it as a curious sideshow. But that’s over now, and the fallout has already consumed National Security Adviser Michael Flynn, who was perhaps Trump’s most dangerous and abnormal key aide. The investigation being mounted by the Senate seems increasingly serious, and Trump’s efforts to mount a counteroffensive — like with his tweet falsely accusing the Obama administration of illegally wiretapping Trump Tower — are backfiring.

Trump is not able to unite the GOP’s warring factions. An interesting lesson of the health care bill’s failure is Trump has no magic fix for the internal tensions that consumed John Boehner’s speakership. It is striking how taken aback he was by the resentments and factions splitting House Republicans. “He's got a lot of factions,” Trump said of Paul Ryan’s failure to pass the bill, “and there's been a long history of liking and disliking even within the Republican Party. Long before I got here.” It’s a sign of how weakened Trump is that his White House is worrying they won’t be able to prevent a government shutdown even though their party holds complete control of Congress.
Trump isn’t normal, but the system around him is

If I had told you that America would soon elect an unpopular, undisciplined, inexperienced, scandal-plagued reality television star to the presidency, and that he would staff his White House with warring advisers who had never worked in government, you likely would have predicted a presidency that looks very much like the one we have now.

Which isn’t to say Trump hasn’t accomplished anything, much less that he won’t. I expect Gorsuch to be confirmed, for instance, and a number of Trump’s executive orders are consequential — like the climate change directives released this week. And if nothing else, Trump prevented Hillary Clinton from taking office and turning the Supreme Court Democratic for the first time in a generation. As one Republican Hill staffer said to me, “if we get Gorsuch and avoid a nuclear war, a lot of us will count this as a win."

But what we’re learning, day by day, is there’s no magic to Trump. When he does things people hate, he becomes unpopular. When he backs bad legislation and bad processes, the bills fail. When he doesn’t prioritize staffing his government, his government doesn’t get staffed. When he doesn’t choose aides who know how to manage a presidency, his presidency careens forward unmanaged. When he doesn’t spend time learning about the policies he backs, he’s unable to persuade the American people of their benefits. When he doesn’t build deep relationships with the legislators in his party, he proves unable to corral them.

Trump has not found a shortcut for American politics. To succeed at a hard job, he has to work hard in ways and at tasks that he has, thus far, shown little aptitude for or interest in.

Trump himself may never be a normal president, but the system he leads remains more normal than many expected. While it's easy to imagine scenarios where that ceases to be true — a terrorist attack, for instance — the fact remains that so far, incompetence, not autocracy or even ruthless efficacy, has defined the Trump administration. He has achieved much less than his predecessors at this point in their presidencies, and he has done so at great cost to his own popularity. Trump is struggling with the same veto points and limitations that frustrate all presidents, but he is further held back by his own inexperience and undisciplined approach.

It is possible Trump will yet recover. But it is also possible he’ll enter a failure loop, where his unpopularity and his scandals and his failed initiatives and his poor management lead to more public anger and more aggressive congressional investigation and more failed initiatives and more fracturing and infighting among his staff. The 2018 elections are a long way away, but Trump is off to a very bad start.

Source : VOX

Commodities: Time to shine?

The commodity sector remains one of the most important sectors for Malaysia’s economy.

As prices of several commodities such as crude oil and crude palm oil (CPO) were on the uptrend in the past 12 months, the scenario has put fresh hopes that the country’s economy will be on better footing this year.

Malaysia, being a heavy exporting country, has been relying on the exports of commodities such as oil palm and crude oil to boost the country’s economic growth.

Thus, in an effort to boost demand and ensure the quality of production, the government is providing a grant of RM50 million to assist the commodity industry in addressing food safety concerns, including reducing the level of containment in palm oil.

Minister of Plantation Industries and Commodities Datuk Seri Mah Siew Keong disclosed that the grant is open to all factories and refineries working together to do research and further increase the quality of palm oil.

Additionally, to further promote the image of the oil palm industry, Mah said Malaysia would embark on the mandatory certification of certified and sustainable palm oil under the framework of Malaysian Sustainable Palm Oil.

The scheme – which was implemented on a voluntary basis beginning 2015 – will be made mandatory in stages starting from December 31, 2018.

On the outlook for palm oil, Mah expects exports to reach RM70 billion this year from RM67 billion in 2016 and CPO price to average between RM2,700 and RM2,800 per tonne this year.

“We are maintaining our earlier forecast that the CPO will average between RM2,700 per tonne and RM2,800 per tonne in 2017.

“This is on anticipation of higher prices, driven by various government efforts and initiatives, including venturing into various other markets, especially India and Iran,” Mah reportedly said.



Oil Palm

According to industry experts, the production of global CPO is poised to increase 11 per cent to 65 million tonnes in 2017 from 58.3 million tonnes last year as normal weather conditions in major growing areas would help raise crop yield.

Likewise, industry observers believed the absence of El Nino weather this year will enable production of CPO to resume back to normal and is projected to increase gradually towards year end.

Analysts and industry observers opined that CPO production is expected to recover in the second half of the year as demand begins to normalise.

During a recent conference on the outlook of the palm oil industry, Dr. James Fry, a renowned industry player in the palm oil industry believed that CPO output is poised to increase significantly in 2017.

He added the higher CPO output will increase the inventory level of Malaysia’s palm oil to above two million metric tonnes (MT) by July 2017 and subsequently to an estimated 2.5 million MT in the fourth quarter of 2017 (4Q17).

Fry noted the recovery of CPO production will result in CPO price averaging RM2,500 per tonne during 3Q17 before moderating to RM2,250 per tonne in 4Q17.

Concurring with Fry on the moderating CPO price were analysts at research houses who opined that CPO price could soften to RM2,250-RM2,400 per MT as CPO production started to gain momentum towards year-end.

In spite of that, they believed the greater use of biodiesel and the potential return of El Nino could spark CPO price to strengthen further in 2018 as the lag effect on production would kick-in by April next year.

Deputy Minister of Plantation Industries and Commodities Datuk Datu Nasrun Datu Mansur said,“The government intends to implement the B10 blend to encourage the use of environmentally friendly fuels produced from palm oil this year.

The implementation of the biodiesel blends will contribute to the environment with cleaner emissions and well as economic prosperity and stability of palm oil prices in the market,” he said.

Having said that, the palm oil industry has played a significant role for the country’s socio-economic development especially for the low-income population through smallholder programme.

As such, it is important to ensure that the industry will be developed in a environmental friendly and sustainable approach through the certified sustainable palm oil (CSPO) and the Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO) certification.



Crude oil

Despite a correction in crude oil price recently, analysts believed the price will eventually move higher and end the year above US$50 per barrel.

Oil prices have weakened over the past week due to concern on building oil stocks and revival of rigs count in US coupled with moderation of oil demand growth.

Kenanga Research opined that the development was not surprising as US shale producers were the biggest beneficiaries of lower oil prices.

Nonetheless, the research firm still expects consistent compliance from the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) nation to adhere to the oil production cut and higher compliance from Russia from current level until the end of June although the positives from the production cut between OPEC and non-OPEC nations have been taken into consideration in its oil price projection.

Additionally, the research firm opined that the oil market is building in expectations for an extension after the six-month period which will be decided in the next OPEC meeting in May.

Overall, Kenanga Research retained its Brent oil price forecast of US$55 per barrel in 2017.

OCBC Bank Research believed crude oil will push towards a rebalanced environment if a unified OPEC unanimously acts to effectively reduce oil production.

The traditional acts of overproducing (despite having quotas), internal disagreements, and even exclusions from cuts by selected countries may delay the rebalancing yet again.

OCBC commodities analyst Barnabas Gan said, “We think OPEC has endured low oil prices for far too long, with much damage already done on both fiscal and social fronts.

“That alone should persuade the cartel to stay true to its production cut. Global growth should accelerate into 2017 and support crude oil demand.

“Collectively, these should give crude oil prices a welcomed boost in 2017,” he believed.

Gan stressed that the central argument for oil price to trend higher in 2017 was largely underpinned by the rebalancing story.

He added, “We opine that the path of least resistance would be for the oil markets to fully balance itself by the second half of 2017 (2H17) as oil demand recover while supply growth decelerates.

“We strongly believe that the oil markets will one day rebalance itself, be it by the invisible hand or by the workings of the OPEC. The question is when.

“Should either side of the equation falter, either from OPEC’s inability to unanimously limit production or from the sudden shortfall in demand, the oil climate in 2017 may behave just like how it did in 2016,” he opined.

He envisaged that oil price will have a a gradual rally towards the $65 per barrel by the end of this year.



Aluminium

Price of aluminium has been on the rise since early last year due to positive sentiment attributed to several factors.

Those factors were the anticipated fiscal stimulus from the new administration of the US and the expectation that the Chinese government will continue its fiscal support for economic growth.

As a result, aluminium manufacturers have been able to generate higher turnover from the sales of their products and benefitted from the foreign exchange gains on their US dollar sales.

For instance, one company which is riding on the increased price of aluminium is Press Metal Bhd (Press Metal).

The company’s financial results for financial year 2016 (FY16) have been boosted by higher smelting output and improved London Metal Exchange (LME) price.

Following a company’s meeting, the research arm of Kenanga Investment Bank Bhd (Kenanga Research) in a report said it was positive on the company’s earnings for this year underpinned by the bullish outlook on aluminium price.

Besides that, the research firm noted a recent ruling by China to cut production for both aluminium and alumina has further provide support for aluminium price over the short-term.

Press Metal in its latest accounts notes said the Chinese government has been very concerned lately of the country’s environment pollution.

As a measure to reduce pollution, the company observed that the Chinese government was looking at measures to limit industries emission and the high energy consuming industries which includes the aluminium industry.

In that event, Press Metal noted the move will affect the production of aluminium for several months and thus reduce the annual output.

Therefore, the company believed the move will enable aluminium price to trade higher due to healthy demand and supply and opined that the aluminium industry is in a more balanced situation currently as compared to the past few years.

Apart from that, Kenanga Research observed that countries like India and Australia are exploring or have implemented anti-dumping duties for the import of Chinese aluminum, which in turn provide a level playing field for aluminium manufacturers to operate their businesses.

Furthermore, the research firm noted with limited production of aluminium in the US due to high manufacturing costs, the premiums on aluminium price were on the rise as forward price has reached a premium of approximately US$200 per metric tonne (MT) from a low of US$160 per MT in October 2015.

Going forward, Kenanga Research expects Press Metal to manage its cost more effectively, especially the cost for logistics, as the adjoining Samalaju Port in Bintulu is scheduled to start operations by the middle of 2017.

Meanwhile, the research firm gathered that the company is currently constructing a conveyor belt directly into the port.

Apart from that, the research firm also gathered the company’s aluminium plant in Mukah is expected to enjoy reductions in cost and transportation time as the construction of a road will save approximately 100km in travelling distance to the closest port.

Thus, Kenanga Research was positive on those developments as the measures which is going to be implemented should reduce logistics cost by US$8-US$10 per MT.

Going forward, the research firm expects Press Metal to further expand the company’s smelting capacity once more electricity supply is secured.

It gathered that the company has sufficient area to commission a third Samalaju plant with a production capacity of 320,000 MT per year.

Moreover, Kenanga Research also expects the company to register profit margin expansion as Press Metal is doubling its existing billet production capacity by the middle of 2017.

Over the longer term, the research firm said the company is targeting 50 per cent alloy production by 2018.

It forecasts that the alloy production will generate additional revenue of US$150 per MT on top of standard aluminum prices to Press Metal in the future.

Kenanga Research believed Press Metal’s long-term earnings potential will be further supported by improving production efficiency and potential for expansion of the company’s business in the upstream, midstream and downstream segments.


Gold

Moving on to another commodity is gold. In Malaysia, gold production is extracted from 14 mines mostly in Pahang, Kelantan and Terengganu.

As of 2015, Pahang has contributed about 74 per cent of the country’s gold output.

Malaysian Chamber of Mines’ executive director Muhamad Nor Muhamad revealed that the gold industry’s growth for the country was driven by higher output and rising gold price.

He observed the upstream sector of the gold industry has grown three-fold in the past decade to RM780 million in 2015 from RM211 million in 2006.

“The contribution from the upstream sector was fairly significant, producing 4.73 tonnes of gold worth RM780.8 million and exporting 4.06 tonnes of smelted gold worth RM523.4 million in 2015,” he reportedly said.

He also said gold was primarily exported to Australia, Singapore, Switzerland, Hong Kong, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Thailand.

He added the exports are in the form of “dore bars” – semi-pure alloy containing 85 per cent gold and the balance either copper, silver, lead, zinc or selenium.

“They are then exported for refining into 99.9 per cent gold bars.

“However, the smaller producers usually sell their gold ores to local goldsmiths who then smelt and refine them at their own premises for making into jewellery,” he said.

Muhamad Nor noted Malaysia did not have a gold refinery as most of the precious metal, after being smelted, would be exported to be refined in other countries especially by major miners.

“The major producers in the country are often associated with big international gold players who have their own refinery in other country,” he said.

On the gold industry’s outlook, Muhamad Nor believed the exploration activities undertaken by the Department of Minerals and Geoscience Malaysia had identified several areas with anomalous gold in Sarawak, Sabah, Pahang, Johor and Kelantan.

“This means that our gold industry has the potential to sustain mine production at its historical level for several years to come,” he added.

According to local data, since 1972, gold output reached its highest of 4.739 tonnes in 2003 before declining to 2.794 tonnes in 2009 and bounced back to 4.732 tonnes in 2015.

However, the major factor that will make the mines feasible is the gold price which in 2015, had averaged at US$1,160.11 per ounce (oz), he believed.

Currently, gold price fluctuated between US$1,200 and US$1,260 in the past one month.

Moving on, Muhamad Nor opined that the more significant contribution came from the downstream sector whose economic value had far exceeded the upstream while the upstream sector continued to grow.

“Of significance is the contribution by the downstream sector which imported gold for making into jewellery and accessories not only for the domestic but also the international market.

“This was reflected in the value of gold imported to produce jewellery whereby in 2015 alone, the country imported 77.53 tonnes of gold valued at RM11.07 billion mainly from Switzerland, UAE, Singapore, Turkey, Hong Kong, US and Thailand, he said.

Meanwhile, Federation of Goldsmiths and Jewellers Association of Malaysia president Ermin Siow said Malaysia was a significant gold jewellery exporter, of around 50 tonnes annually worth between RM6 billion and RM8 billion mainly to the Middle East countries.

He said the volume far exceeded domestic usage of 20-25 tonnes annually.

“For plain gold jewellery exports, I would reckon we now rank among the top five in the world,” he said.

To note, one local company which is mining gold is Borneo Oil Bhd (Borneo Oil).

Borneo Oil through its wholly-owned subsidiary Borneo Oil and Gas Corporation Sdn Bhd (Borneo O&G) is involved in the mining of gold at a site in Pahang.

The company in a filing to Bursa Malaysia recently said it has identified additional gold mineralisation at a site at Bukit Ibam, Pahang.

Borneo O&G said it has discovered average gold grade of 2.68g per tons, including high grade zone of one meter with 19.2g per tonne gold and 14 meters averaging 1.39g per tonne gold.

The company revealed that it is finalising its heap leaching process at its mining location at Bukit Ibam and is looking forward to process the 1.80 tonne of its inferred gold resources in the near future.

With the sales of the gold resources, Borneo O&G hoped that the turnover is expected to contribute substantially to Borneo Oil Group’s revenue.

Borneo Oil opined that the price of gold is currently in the early stages of entering a long term bullish trend.

In contrast, OCBC Bank Research believed gold prices are likely to trend in a bearish fashion given the hope for a rosier global economy and higher US interest rates this year.

However, the research firm opined that the various exogenous uncertainties this year may give rise to safe haven demand.

OCBC’s Gan said, “Through the test of time, gold prices have correlated firmly with the value of the greenback, which consequently has been a function of interest rates in the US.

“Fundamentally, gold is a quasi foreign-exchange-commodity asset and the sustained likelihood for the Federal Reserve to engage in further rate hikes this year should translate into a firmer US dollar then.

“In a nutshell, barring a quick and sudden deterioration in risk appetite given the many event risks discussed earlier, our call for gold to trend to $1,100 per oz in 2017 is largely underpinned by this driver (of higher interest rates) alone,” he said.



Rubber

Aside from that, rubber is another commodity which has gained worldwide usage due to the exports of rubber gloves and other rubber products.

In spite of that, rubber price has remained subdued and the government is looking at various initiatives to boost the demand for rubber and subsequently raise its price.

Mah said the government has been doing research on rubberised roads over the last three years to ensure that there is market for local rubber and most importantly smallholders who are tapping the rubber will benefit from their produce.

“We must build the rubberised roads in small towns and certain parts of (major) highways.

“The main purpose is to ensure that our 440,000 rubber smallholders have sustainable demand.

“We need to support our smallholders, who might otherwise shift away from natural rubber due to weak prices.

“There are about 1.2 million smallholders in the country (550,000 smallholders in the palm oil industry, 440,000 in the rubber industry and 60,000 in the pepper industry),” he observed.

Mah outlined that the maintenance costs for rubberised roads in the long run will be cheaper although the initial cost of building rubberised roads was 16 per cent higher than normal bitumen-based asphalt.

He noted rubberised roads were more durable and can bear heavier loads.

Concurring with Mah, Malaysian Rubber Board (MRB) director-general Datuk Dr Mohd Akbar Md Said believed Malaysia is ready to rubberise about 1,000 kilometres of state roads starting this year,

He explained that the diverse use of rubber, especially for construction, would help reduce the current rubber stockpile and shore up flagging prices for the commodity.

He opined that rubberised roads offer superior performance, safety, durability and low maintenance as compared with conventional roads.

Mohd Akbar shared that the board was looking at how to increase the domestic consumption of the commodity in other sectors.

He said it was possible to rubberise roads in the country as evident from the one kilometre rubberised road built at the Kota Tinggi Research Station in Johor.

Mohd Akbar revealed that Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia have decided to increase the domestic consumption of rubber and one of the options was to use natural rubber for road construction.

He noted the three countries have looked into the possibility of using 300,000 tonnes of natural rubber for the next five to 10 years.

Meanwhile, rubberised roads is expected to be constructed using rubber cup lumps or naturally-coagulated latex, which will be processed into bituminous cup lumps and then mixed into asphalt.

The use of cup lumps – which are obtained directly from rubber trees without going through any manufacturing process – is expected to boost domestic demand for the material by 10 per cent annually.

It was reported that several rubberised asphalt pilot projects were in place and their performance was being analysed.

The field study involved five projects, one each in Negeri Sembilan, Kedah, Pahang, Kelantan and Selangor.

Source: Borneo Post

The Guy Who Correctly Predicted The Fall Of Oil Prices Tells Cramer Where Crude Will Trade In 2021

Jim Cramer has interviewed countless members of the energy industry, but he says there is only one guy who correctly called the bottom for crude and predicted the trajectory for oil prices, RBN Energy President Rusty Braziel.

Unfortunately, Braziel thinks an administration under President-elect Donald Trump means the oil and gas industry is going to get things done — which could be bad news for oil prices.

"Even under the Obama administration they got a lot of things done. They got so many things done that they crushed the price of oil and gas ... now we're going to get more things done. Does that make you a little uncomfortable?" Braziel said to the "Mad Money" host on Tuesday.

Looking at the forward curve, Braziel predicted that the price of oil will be $56 a barrel by 2021.

Rusty Braziel, CEO of RBN Energy.

Braziel also speculated that the OPEC agreement to stem production by 1.2 million barrels a day was all about "optics."

"Just the fear factor was enough to take the shorts out of the market — and that's why you got the boost — but let's face it, right now we are back down under $51," Braziel said.

According to Braziel, the sweet spot for OPEC is to have crude prices between $55 and $58 a barrel. They want the extra money, but do not want to create the economics to have the U.S. increase production by 100,000 barrels a day.

"I think that the Saudis probably had a building full of consultants tell them exactly the number that they needed to pick in order to be able to boost their revenue while not unleashing the beast," Braziel said.

Read the full story here: http://www.cnbc.com/2016/12/06/the-guy-who-correctly-predicted-the-fall-of-oil-prices-tells-cramer-where-crude-will-trade-in-2021.html

EPF Dividend 2016 at 5.7%

The Employees Provident Fund (EPF), with the approval of the Minister of Finance, today declared a dividend rate of 5.70 per cent for 2016, with a total payout amounting to RM37.08 billion.

The EPF recorded RM46.56 billion in gross investment income in 2016, an increase of 5.25 per cent compared with the RM44.23 billion recorded in 2015. This is the highest gross investment income ever recorded since the establishment of the EPF in 1951 and the amount has been growing annually at 11.1 per cent since 2001.

This is a commendable achievement in view of the much tougher market environment. For 2016, the rolling three-year real dividend was 3.83 per cent, 183 basis points above the target.

During the year under review, Equities continued to be the main contributor of income with 57.68 per cent amounting to RM26.85 billion, up 3.23 per cent compared with RM26.01 billion in 2015.

The EPF’s investments in fixed income instruments comprising Malaysian Government Securities & Equivalent and Loans & Bonds in total contributed 34.87 per cent, or RM16.23 billion, of the RM46.56 billion investment income for the year.

Real Estate & Infrastructure asset class contributed RM2.49 billion in investment income in 2016 with annual growth of 46.04 per cent compared with 2015, while Money Market Instruments contributed RM982.28 million of income during the year.

Don't check your stocks every hour every day cause I want to make you Rich maa!

Don’t be a moron. If you check your stocks every day and worry about the daily changes in the stock prices and the variations in your net worth, you’re being dumb.

Most successful investors don’t need to check on their investments every day. The daily changes in stocks are almost always noise, plain and simple, and few 200% returns were determined by the news of one day.

What you should be doing?

I for one always advocate in this blog that investing should always be for the long term and getting rich slowly and steady.

Another thing I frequently will say is to treat investing like a business (again which means for the long term)

Of course you need to occasionally monitor your investments to see how they’re doing. And you may want to set up automatic news alerts through a stock app/Google news to keep you informed on major news in the company. How often should you manually check on things? Probably every few months like during quarterly earnings report with a major review every year. But not every day.

Relax. Once you get set up right, investing is easier than you think. Last year, I trade less and reduced the time looking after my stock investments. And I managed to INCREASE my total income compared to the previous year.

8 Ideas to earn US$

The US$ is at RM 4.44 as of today.

Imagine if you could generate some income in US$ now.

I have come out with some ideas on how to get some US$.

The ideas below are what I think an individual could do. They are all medium to low risks ideas. If some of these ideas aren’t for you, just skip ahead to the next ideas.

Your situation is 100% unique and the only way you are going to make US$ is to ignore the ideas that aren’t right for you. Even if 80% of the ideas in this article are completely useless for you, that still leaves 1-2 ideas for you to consider for making US$ !

1. Invest/trade in US stocks for capital gains

2. Invest in US stocks for their dividends/bonus/splits

3. Invest in a stock options strategy called covered call.

4. Invest in a US property for value appreciation and collect rentals.

5. Open a Foreign Currency account in US$ and earn interest on the balance and future appreciation of US$.

6. Create a blogger site like Ongmali Blogspot, apply for Google Adsense advertisement and earn revenue in US$.

7. Register for EBay etc that allow you to sell something to other people and sell your goods online.

8. Create a website and sell 3rd party goods online.

Analyzing My 2016 Investing

I spent some time during the Chinese New Year holidays to analyse and look at all my 2016 investing.

I think this action makes me a better investor and also make me aware of my strengths and weakness.

I do it on a yearly basis but I know some people who do it weekly and/or monthly. I think monthly is best as you can see your mistakes much earlier. Oh well, I am a bit lazy ....

I have 3 columns ... 1) Stock trading and investments 1) Dividends and 3) Other Income

Overall I did better than 2015 ..

I managed to reduce the number of trades, yet INCREASE my income on stock trading and investments and dividends.

I also made some "Other income" from Google Adsense compared to zero in 2015.

I also started putting money into my KWSP (EPF) account .(more about this in an article later)

I made some terrible mistakes too ...on two stocks which I suffered huge losses. These are speculative stocks and I did NOT cut loss quickly. I must learn from this and remember the lessons in my head.

All the best and good trading everyone in 2017!