WHAT A DIFFERENCE A COUPLE OF MONTHS MAKES

My what a difference a couple of months makes. Several months ago everyone was convinced that stocks were starting a protracted bear market. Many expected it to be even worse than the last one in 2008/09.

A couple of months ago everyone was calling for 110-120 on the dollar index.

A couple of months ago everyone knew that oil was going to the low 20’s or even into the teens.

And several months ago everyone was convinced that gold would trade below $1000 some even calling for targets below $800.

I disagreed with every one of these assumptions. Why? Because all markets were due for multi-year cycle lows. (Except the dollar which was due for a multi-year cycle top).

As we now know all of these assumptions were 180 degrees wrong.

Folks when everyone is thinking the same thing, then no one is thinking.

Now we have many people swinging for the fences in the opposite direction. That’s what a persistent trend will do to trader bias.

Here’s my contrary predictions for the next several months.

Almost everyone is still assuming that stocks are in a bear market and that we are just forming a double top. Stocks are not forming a double top. This is a new 7 year cycle. There is simpoly no way a new 7 year cycle can top in less than 2 1/2 years. Stocks are going to go so far above the all time highs in the next several years that it will make your head swim.

The current theory is the dollar is now ready to crash. Again the crowd is on the wrong side of the boat. The dollar is not going to crash. In fact it’s due for a multi-week rally. But once the rally has run its course the dollar will continue down and the 7 year bull market is over.

Everyone continues to get sidetracked by the supposed fundamentals in oil. This is not a bear market rally in oil. The fundamentals have already changed even though no one can see it yet. We are never going to see $26 oil again. 

And the strength of the rally in gold has convinced many that this time is different. Too many analysts are now expecting only a sideways correction in gold or a very mild intermediate degree correction. This is absurd. The dollar hasn’t even rallied yet. How in the world can one predict that gold will just trade sideways before the dollar even delivers its rally? Gold is going to correct and the move down into the intermediate cycle low will be much more severe than anyone is currently expecting. Miners will retrace at least 50% of the baby bull rally and in the process completely cleanse the bullish sentiment that has built up in the sector. 

Once the correction has knocked everyone off the bull and convinced most everyone that the bear has returned, then and only then will gold be ready for the next leg up in its new bull market. 

Source: http://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/2016/04/difference-couple-months-makes.html

Are stock tips groups a front for a stock Pump and Dump scam?

Of late there have been a hive of activity of stock tips groups (paid and foc) using the Facebook, Whatsapp, Wechat and Telegram social media app. I say (most) of these groups are usually not more than a front for a stock pump and dump scam. Remember how this works ....

• The pumper buy up a stock in advance, usually choosing a cheap “penny stock.”
• The pumper start spreading the word about the “promising” stock, aiming to “pump” up the stock and get people excited about potential gains.
• Investors start pouring money into the investment and the price starts to rise.
• The pumper start the next round of “pumping” the stock—and point to the rising price and trading volumes as evidence of its strong performance, which inflates the price even more.
• The pumper keep it up until eventually “dumping” their shares for a huge profit and leaving investors scrambling to get rid of dropping stock as the price plummets.

Some stock tips groups charge a fee to be a premium member, which let's paid members know ahead which stocks the pumper is pumping in advance ...I think it is a great idea ... ...the premium members get to make some great profits ....and the stock pumper get a pool of motivated buyers of the stock he is dumping ...plus an extra monthly and/or yearly fees as well ...

And they are getting super professional too ....they are coming up with beautiful technical analysis, fundamental analysis and take profit, cut loss etc on the stock ....

This article is not to judge whether this is right or wrong as I believe all of us are adults able to think properly but just a friendly reminder on what you are getting yourself into .....Adios.

What's Doha Got To Do With FX?

This weekend’s meeting of OPEC and non-OPEC members in Doha is important for currencies because when oil bottomed at the beginning of the year it set a peak for the U.S. dollar. If you recall, the greenback was trading strongly when oil prices hit a 10-year low of $26.20 a barrel and when oil started to recover, the dollar index lost its momentum and began trading sharply lower. So not only is the dollar’s value important for oil, but in recent years we’ve also seen how it can impact currencies and equities. Oil is particularly important to the Canadian dollar but it can also affect the market’s overall risk appetite. For the past few months, investors have been patiently waiting for oil-producing nations to officially freeze production. In mid February, Saudi Arabia and Russia, the world’s two largest oil producers made a preliminary deal to freeze output -- but it was contingent on Iran’s participation. Unfortunately, Iran supported the deal but refused to comply until its production returned to pre-sanction levels.

This weekend we'll see if oil producers are willing to move forward without Iran’s cooperation. If they agree to freeze production, relieved investors will reward the decision with higher oil prices, rallies for stocks, a lower U.S. dollar and stronger commodity currencies. But in order for there to be any real continuation, oil producers need to cut output -- and that’s unlikely. Saudi Arabia and Russia are producing oil at record levels and an output halt would still mean 300 million extra barrels of oil per year for the world -- excluding the added inventory provided by Iran. The International Energy Agency believes that a deal would not rebalance supply before 2017. A production cut was far more likely when oil was below $30 a barrel but at $40, the pressure to make any drastic change is limited. Of course, in the event of no deal, oil prices will collapse, commodity currencies will fall, stocks will extend lower and the dollar will rise as risk aversion returns to the markets. Either way, the Doha meeting is an extremely important event risk for the FX market this weekend.

By Kathy Lien, Managing Director of FX Strategy for BK Asset Management.

31 Good Reasons For Long Term Investing

1. Sleep better at night.

2. Less stressful to the heart.

3. Have more free time on your hands.

4. Less emotions involved.

5. No need to worry too much on what will happen in the near future.

6. No need to be a news/info freak.

7. No fear of stock pump and dump scams.

8. No need to wake up at 6 AM to do research.

9. You save your eyes.

10. You can wake up as late as you like.

11. Can go out as you like instead of glued to the computer screen.

12. You can take long afternoon naps.

13. Save money from having to pay for daily stock tips.

14. Save money from having to buy newspapers, The Edge Weekly or Focus Malaysia business magazines to look for stock tips.

15. You can take longer lunches.

16. No high IQ and expert skill necessary or needed.

17. No need to do much homework.

18. You use less electricity.

19. You can afford to travel more.

20. No need to monitor where the stock market is going in the near term.

21. No need to worry which way RM is going this year.

22. No need to waste time and spend money looking for stock tips.

23. You take less risk.

24. You got more time to decide on your investments.

25. Got time to take up a hobby you always wanted.

26. You avoid the gambling habit.

27. No need to worry on when Auntie Janet Yellen will raise interest rates in 2016.

28. You will pay less broker commissions.

29. Don't care where oil prices will go in the near future.

30. You avoid becoming a stock market addict.

31. You actually GAIN MORE in the end.

I could go on and on ....But I hope you get the picture to invest long term. You decide.

Six Easy ways to earn, even after death.

I got this from WhatsApp.,, Six Easy ways to earn, even after death.


1) Give a smile or gift to someone.


Each time u gift or smile, it will make someone's day.....u gain.


2) Donate a wheelchair to a hospital. Each time sick person uses it, u gain.


3) Participate in building an orphanage, hospital, school or college.

Anybody uses it, u gain.


4) Place a water cooler in a public place. Anybody drinks water, u gain.


5) Plant a tree. Whenever a person, animal sits in its shade or eats from it, u gain.


6) And the easiest of all is to Share this message with people. Even if 1 applies any of the above, u gain.

I just did.✌💐👍🎁

H.O.P.E. Investing ..INVESTING based on HOPE

According to the Merriam-Webster online dictionary, HOPE in simple layman terms just means ... " to want something to happen or be true and think that it could happen or be true."

1) In my early investing and trading career, I banked on HOPE a lot. I will buy a stock and hope it will go up the next day or next week based on the good volume and rising share price. I did not check anything else. It usually ended badly for me but I did not give up on HOPE. 

2) I then decided to look into the stock background and did some investigations on their finances before committing funds to the stock but again I made the same mistake of depending everything on HOPE. I had hoped that the stock accounts will turn around and the losses will turn into profits even though in reality the stock I was holding was in a hopeless situation. It never occur to me why I was putting money into this sick chicken when they were plenty of other much healthier animals around ...LOL ...so I lost again ... due to too much HOPE.

3) Then I decided to believe what the directors would write in their annual reports and what the research analysts will write on the stock. I could sense that what they were writing have a big element of HOPE but believed them since they were insiders and/or people who had superior knowledge about the situation...well, FAT HOPES! I can tell you .....my losses were always more than the profits I ever made hoping on these guys.

4) Other times ... where I bought into a PN17 stock (TCubes and PMCap comes to mind) and hoping and hoping that they will come out from that s*h*i*t hole and I will make tons of money. That never happened.

5) Or ...the time where I bought into the stock because someone claim they are going to invent a world beater product or get a huge contract ...which more times than not did not materialised.

6)The moral of the story is ....don't depend on HOPE in stock investing. You'll be better off trusting real facts and figures than hoping for this and that. A little bit of HOPE is okay...after all the stock market is built on hopes. HOPE is I think ..best left to religion.