Oil is going lower ...and lower ..

Seems like what this guy is saying that oil prices will go lower and remain low for at least till March-April 2016 (early spring).


Source : http://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/2015/11/charts-of-the-day-25.html

The US Dollar Bull Market Could Trigger a $9 Trillion Debt Implosion

The US Dollar rally, combined with the ECB’s policies and the Fed’s hint at raising rates in December, is at risk of blowing up a $9 trillion carry trade.

When the Fed cut interest rates to zero in 2008, it flooded the system with US Dollars. The US Dollar is the reserve currency of the world. NO matter what country you’re in (with few exceptions) you can borrow in US Dollars.

And if you can borrow in US Dollars at 0.25%... and put that money into anything yielding more… you could make a killing.

A hedge fund in Hong Kong could borrow $100 million, pay just $250,000 in interest and plow that money into Brazilian Reals which yielded 11%... locking in a $9.75 million return.

This was the strictly financial side of things. On the economics side, Governments both sovereign and local borrowed in US Dollars around the globe to fund various infrastructure and municipal projects.

Simply put, the US Government was practically giving money away and the world took notice, borrowing Dollars at a record pace. Today, the global carry trade (meaning money borrowed in US Dollars and invested in other assets) stands at over $9 TRILLION (larger than the economy of France and Brazil combined).

This worked while the US Dollar was holding steady. But in the summer of last year (2014), the US Dollar began to breakout of a multi-year wedge pattern:

Why does this matter?

Because the minute the US Dollar began to rally aggressively, the global US Dollar carry trade began to blow up. It is not coincidental that oil commodities, and emerging market stocks took a dive almost immediately after this process began.

The below chart shows an inverted US Dollar chart (so when the US Dollar rallies, the chart falls), Brazil’s stock market (blue line), Commodities in general (red line) and Oil (green line). As you can see, as soon as the US Dollar began to rally, it triggered an implosion in “risk on” assets.

This process is not over, not by a long shot. As anyone who invested during the Peso crisis or Asian crisis can tell you, when carry trades blow up, the volatility can be EXTREME.

Indeed, the US Dollar as broken out of a MASSIVE falling wedge pattern that predicts a multi-year bull market.

The market drop in August triggered by China devaluing the Yuan (another victim of the US Dollar bull market) was just the start. Once the US Dollar rally really begins picking up steam, we could very well see a crash.


Source: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-09/us-dollar-bull-market-could-trigger-9-trillion-debt-implosion

LCTH in Ascending Channel ...Pt 2

LCTH is moving along slowly in an Ascending Channel chart pattern. It shows a continuation uptrend in progress with prices showing higher highs and higher lows. 

Teaser: Could this example be the chart of LCTH in the future ? We hope so.


Take note that LCTH is "expected" to announce their quarterly results this week, on Nov 13th, this Friday (AMC - after market close) - I based this date on the last 3 years 2012-2014 where quarter results were released on Nov 14th and in second week of November.  

IF the results are good, I hope LCTH can breakout from this current channel (red arrow, see diagram above).

Disclaimer: I currently do not hold any LCTH stock but could initiate a position next week. This is my personal view and I could be wrong on the outcome. Trade at your own risk!

ValueCap to pick firms from six key sectors

VALUECAP Sdn Bhd, which was recently reactivated with RM20 billion to invest in undervalued stocks, will look at listed companies in six key sectors, said Minister in the Prime Minister’s Department Datuk Seri Abdul Wahid Omar. He said the sectors are banking, consumer industries, services, construction, plantation and property. “Selection will not be based on sentiment or speculation but on companies with strong and consistent earnings record, stable cash flow and spearheaded by good management,” he said in a written reply in Parliament, here, yesterday. “Companies with good returns in terms of dividend and which are ‘defensive’ in nature will also be good choices, for example Malayan Banking Bhd, United Plantation Bhd and real estate investment trusts, which generally give annual dividends of more than five per cent.” Wahid was asked where the RM20 billion would be sourced from, and whether there were studies to show that the funds could help the stock market. He said ValueCap’s RM20 billion fund will be provided by its three shareholders — Khazanah Nasional Bhd, Retirement Fund Inc and Permodalan Nasional Bhd. “The injection will be in the form of bonds and external financing or other capital, with board approval. The funds will not be obtained by the government and are not guaranteed in any way by the government.” Wahid said ValueCap’s activities will be undertaken by professional fund managers with strong track record to ensure that its long-term objectives and mandate are met. ValueCap is expected to start investing next month when its shareholders release the first tranche of the fund. From 2003 to 2013, the company generated an annual average return of more than 16.3 per cent. It accumulated RM8.5 billion in profits as at the end of last year, of which the majority was redistributed in the form of dividends to its shareholders amounting to about RM8.4 billion.

Read More : http://www.nst.com.my/news/2015/10/valuecap-pick-firms-six-key-sectors?utm_source=nst&utm_medium=nst&utm_campaign=nstrelated